Smartwatches have not got the same interest as the early days, but are they because they die or have they just entered and become part of our lives? Chip and Paul debate …
Paul: Stable Growth Is Opposed to Death
According to a recent forecast from Internation Data Corp. (IDC), published in June, 18, we will buy 43.5 million smartwatches in 2018. Estimated to double in 2022 as revenue is expected to reach 89.1 million. Does not sound like a death scare for me.
As far from being dead, the smartwatch category is assumed to grow, albeit with barely two digits, and let's not forget what the growth category has experienced today.
Of course, they are liars, bad lies and statistics, as the quote goes, but perhaps the question we should ask is: "Why do we think smartwatches are dead?"
Smartwatches, or even analog watches for that matter, are not relevant to everyone – and that's fine. What this means is that fewer of us are getting excited about this category.
I want to group smartwatches in the same category as most consumer electronics devices, including tablets and televisions as to how often we replace these devices, we do not need to replace them so often. When Garmin announced the new Fenix 5 Plus family recently, I did not have to hurry to replace my Fenix 5 that I bought in March & # 17; This is an important contributing factor in reducing total sales compared to smartphones.
It's still a young category. Yes, you accept either poor battery life or screen quality compromise, but we know it will be better when MicroLED monitors come and other components are optimized to sip even less juice. We have become accustomed to a rapid pace of change with our smartphones, but smartwatch manufacturers and their component vendors can not support that pace based on the smaller market and slower replacement cycle compared with smartphones. Therefore, Qualcomm's 3100 SoC for smartwatches is just about to be announced.
The New Samsung Galaxy Watch
If I'm not careful, I'll just end up regurgiting my last articles about wearables, so I'll pull it close. This week when Samsung launched Galaxy Watch, while it was not a game shifter, it's probably a more rounded and capable device.
When I reviewed Gear Sport last year, I was not pleased with the depth or breadth of the health and fitness elements, and I found the actual battery life as desired. Galaxy Watch seems to have taken up some of these sites, only our review will tell, and with its new calendar monitoring, Samsung shows that it can still surprise us.
So yes, smartwatches are alive and good and growing. Think about it, when 2022 comes around, our smartwatches will pack MicroLED screens, battery life for several weeks and a host of health and fitness sensors.
Chip: Somebody who never lived alive can not die
Torture a dataset long enough and it will admit something, right? Paul? IDC creates a five-year forecast for a market that is barely 4 years old – I've seen more reliable things in Flat Earther's Facebook pages. The same company predicts that Windows Phone would be the biggest winner in the last four years, imagine.
In the meanwhile, you look at data that has not been fully created – it's actually sales shows very modest single-digit growth. And while some growth will usually appear like good news, there are some things to consider here.
First and foremost, growth is mainly driven by smart bands instead of smartwatches – it's just that the market is so nuanced that instead of trying to find an arbitrary division line, the statistics clump them all in the smart wearable category. Secondly, this is a very new market with little earnings to it, so it must explode to justify the significant R & D costs, and that simply does not.
Who would explain why after the first enthusiasm, where everyone was overestimating the demand smartwatch niche will create, it came time for a reality check. Smartwatches never managed to excite informal consumers, who never saw how they could improve their lives.
This shouted coldly at the ambition of decision makers when they realized that people would like smartwatches either as fashion accessories with dial or as aids in their running or cycling workouts. There is not much of the market already and it is even worse as the first group realizes that the price it has to pay for the cool customizable keys, another device is being charged all the time.
So we see the same bells that are released year after year with minor changes in their design and get new features. Apple Watch Series 3 can pack far more impressive hardware than the original Apple Watch, but in everyday life it makes almost no difference. Same with Samsung Galaxy Watch compared to the 2016 Gear S2 and Huawei's Watch 3 compared to the Original Watch. The creator will be left with premiums and bundle agreements to increase sales, rather than trying to free up exciting new devices.
Finally, I would like to emphasize that I do not say that smartwatches will disappear completely and their market will shrink to zero. They will still be around, and there will always be more decision makers to offer different design options. However, they never managed to become a necessity alone, which means that their development will depend only on which smartphone components and features can be shredded to them. And that means you arrive at the smartwatch market, will be as exciting as the vacuum cleaner. It can not be death, but it does not live either.
What do you think?
You've heard our ramblings, now threw your voices. Do you have the page with Paul or do you think Chip is right?