Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Apple is targeting 2024 for the production of its long-renowned electric vehicle with “next level” battery technology, but Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo believes that a launch no earlier than 2025-2027.
In a research note today, obtained by MacRumors, Kuo said that the Apple Car specifications have not yet been completed, adding that he would not be surprised if the vehicle’s launch period is extended even further to 2028 or later:
We predicted in an earlier report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023-2025 […] However, our latest survey indicates that the current development plan for Apple Car is not ready, and if the development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the EV / self-driving market and Apple’s high quality standards, we will not be surprised if the Apple Car launch plan is postponed to 2028 or later.
Kuo said the market is “too bullish” on Apple Car’s launch plan, and he has advised investors to avoid buying Apple Car-related shares at this time.
Although he does not believe that Apple Car has any chance of success, Kuo said that there is uncertainty about how competitive Apple will be in the EV / self-driving car market due to the company lagging behind in deep learning / artificial intelligence:
The market has high expectations for Apple Car. Nevertheless, we remind investors that although Apple has a number of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new
business. For example, Apple failed to enter the market for smart speakers. Demand for the HomePod and HomePod mini was lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models had been temporarily halted. The competition in the EV / self-driving car market is tougher than for smart speakers, so we think it is dangerous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed.
If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the most important success factor is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns about the Apple Car is that when the Apple Car is launched, the current self-driving car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and contribute to deep learning / AI. How does Apple, a latecomer, overcome this delayed gap?
Reuters claimed that Apple’s self-driving vehicles will have a unique “monocell” battery design that “frees up space inside the battery pack by eliminating bags and modules that contain battery materials”, potentially resulting in longer range per charge.
Tesla CEO Elon Musk recently reacted to Apple Car rumors on Twitter, claiming that a “monocell” battery is “electrochemically impossible.” Musk also claimed that “during the darkest days” of Model 3 production, he reached out to Apple CEO Tim Cook to discuss the possibility of Apple buying Tesla for a fraction of its current value, but Cook apparently declined the meeting. .
All in all, it sounds like the Apple Car remains a distant reality.