Apple CEO Tim Cook delivers a keynote address during the EU Privacy Conference at the European Parliament in Brussels, Belgium on October 24, 2018.
Yves Herman | Reuters
While the industry is preparing for Apple’s change to the settings of users’ iPhones in the name of privacy, analysts from MKM Partners said on Tuesday that some online advertising companies such as Facebook and Snap will be more exposed to the effects on mobile advertising than their peers.
Industry players currently use that ID, when available, to target ads and measure how effective they are. However, the change is expected to affect advertisers’ ability to target ads as they have been, since people are unlikely to participate.
MKM analysts said they created a framework based on seven factors to determine the risk for online advertising companies of the change. Factors include scale, access to first-party data, exposure to iOS devices, relative revenue contribution from app installation ads, off-platform ads, ads purchased by small businesses, and ads purchased by industries that rely heavily on paid purchases by mobile users. By and large, these companies include those in games, dating, turn-sharing and video streaming.
Analysts said that based on these parameters, Facebook and Snap have the greatest potential headwinds due to IDFA changes, followed by Twitter and Pinterest. They said Google and Amazon have the lowest relative exposure.
“In terms of gravity, relative ad performance, and access to first-party data compared to other subscale platforms, programmatic ad networks and publishers, we expect Big Six online advertising companies to outperform the rest of the industry,” they wrote. more attention in this matter as we approach the 4Q earnings / 2021 outlook, and we will be buyers on weakness, especially FB and SNAP shares, which can be attributed to upcoming iOS 14 changes. ”
In a December note, Bank of America analysts also said that Facebook and Snap are most exposed to the changes, potentially creating a 3% revenue wind for Facebook and a 5% headwind for Snap. They claim Twitter has some modest exposure for mobile app downloads, but the exposure is relatively small compared to Facebook and Snap. Pinterest and Google are the least vulnerable to IDFA, they said.
Facebook has been vocal about the change, most recently running newspaper ads, publishing a new website and running a blog post outlining its arguments against Apple against the change they claim “threatens the personal ads that millions of small businesses trust to find and reach customers.” Facebook, in the blog post, claimed that Apple’s new tracking rules are about “profit, not privacy,” and said they believe Apple is behaving competitively by using control of the App Store in a way that benefits the bottom line at the expense of developers. and small businesses.
Apple told CNBC that the privacy feature gives iPhone users more control and transparency over how their data is tracked and used for advertising, and that apps will be able to explain the benefits of tracking to users in the prompt.
A mockup of the popup window iPhone users will see before using an app that tracks their data. This image was provided by Apple.
By outlining tyr arguments for the advertising ecosystem regarding the IDFA changes, MKM said that companies with scale and access to first-party data will benefit when advertising dollars pull towards such platforms. They also said that the advertising ecosystem has already had an increasing focus on privacy and that secular trends have become stronger despite headwinds caused by privacy regulation.
But they said mobile ad effectiveness could also decline as metering would be more “unclear”, saying companies with limited first-party data would face headwinds, MKM said when describing its bearish arguments. They also wrote that off-platform advertising could be less effective, as cross-device advertising may not be able to rely on the same device signals as before.
CNBC Michael Bloom contributed with reporting.