In a recent research note, trusted Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo wrote that the technology giant could postpone the launch of its electric car until 2028 or later. Kuo has been called “the most accurate Apple analyst in the world”, and may have more insight into the Apple Car project.
Iht MacRumors, Kuo from TF Securities noted that it is too early to get excited about Apple Car. He estimated that Apple’s electric vehicles could be launched by 2025 to 2027 at the earliest, only if all goes well. Otherwise, a launch of 2028 or later may be more feasible.
“We predicted in an earlier report that Apple will launch Apple Car in 2023-2025 […] However, our latest survey indicates that the current development plan for Apple Car is not ready, and if the development starts this year and everything goes well, it will be launched in 2025–2027 at the earliest. Due to changes in the market for EV / self-driving and Apple̵
He noted that Apple has a competitive advantage, but has had trouble starting successful new businesses in the past. Kuo cited examples of Apple products that have not been huge successes so far, such as the HomePod and HomePod mini. He also explained that the company has a lot to catch up on when it comes to autonomous driving data.
“The market has high expectations for Apple Car. Nevertheless, we remind investors that although Apple has a number of competitive advantages, it is not always successful in new business. For example, Apple failed to enter the market for smart speakers. Demand for the HomePod and HomePod mini was lower than expected, and the development of new smart speaker models had been temporarily halted. The competition in the EV / self-driving car market is tougher than for smart speakers, so we think it is dangerous to jump to the conclusion that Apple Car will succeed, “he wrote.
“If Apple Car wants to succeed in the future, the most important success factor is big data / AI, not hardware. One of our biggest concerns for Apple Car is that when Apple Car launches, the current self-driving car brands will have accumulated at least five years of big data and contribute to deep learning / AI. How does Apple, a latecomer, overcome this delayed gap? “
The Apple analyst believes the market is “too bullish” on Apple Car’s schedule and advised investors to avoid buying shares related to the company’s electric passenger car project. Kuo is seen as a trusted Apple analyst because of its close ties with the technology giant’s supply chain. So far, he has accurately predicted the 11-inch MacBook Air, iPhone 6S ‘3D Touch function, iPhone Xs size, screen and glass on the back, and variants of, among others, iPhone 12 and iPhone 12 Pro.
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