Apple aims to report its quarterly earnings tomorrow and while still not breaking out the Apple Watch numbers, the analyst firm UBS is positive about its estimates for the Apple Watch business this year. UBS believes that Apple will send around 24 million Apple Watches over 2018 which includes Series 1, Series 3, and some Series 4 sales. UBS expects the Apple Watch market to grow even more next year, but with an increase of 40% year on year to around 33 million watches sold throughout the year.
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UBS believes that Apple Watch growth could represent an increase in sales of about 5% to Apple next year, a data point that compares to selling 15 million more iPhones.
The analyst service also believes that the increased price of Apple Watch Series 4 with its newly developed display will increase AppleCare sales. If the clock costs more in advance, more people will insure it.
For the latest version of Apple Watch Series 4, AAPL increased the price of the $ 70 GPS and $ 100 GPS + model. The company also increased the AppleCare cost from $ 49 to $ 79 – in part, we believe because of the big screen version. Due to the higher price point, we assume another 1% file for Apple Care on Watch devices (now 11%).
UBS Evidence Lab, working with UBS, adds that the consumer interest for Apple Watch Series 4 is "meaningfully higher" in Japan and Hong Kong compared to last year while "slightly higher" in the US, France and the UK. The report notes that the availability of Apple Watch Series 4 has not improved much since its launch, which quickly resolved for Apple Watch Series 3, which is a positive sign of demand.
The report adds that over 50% of the surveyed buyers are unlikely to buy any smartwatch, apple watch or otherwise, which ultimately means that the audience for products like apple watch can grow much more in the future.
Apple will report its last quarterly earnings tomorrow afternoon. While we are not expecting a breakdown of Apple Watch numbers, this will be the first quarter to include the Apple Watch Series 4 launch, and Apple should also provide guidance for its holiday quarter.
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