For several months now, popular Minecraft streamer Dream has insisted that there was nothing fishy about the six “Any% Random Seed”
The admission seems to eventually add months of drama and dueling of accusations between Dream and mods, settling an argument based on complex mathematics to prove that Dream’s race was vanishingly unlikely to be the result of chance alone.
To understand the accusations played here, you must first understand how much of a role luck plays at a top level. Any% speedrun on Minecraft and how ridiculously lucky Dream was in the current streamed races.
Turns quickly Minecraft is a multi-step process. One of the most crucial is to swap gold with the pigs in hopes of getting Ender Pearls, which is needed to eventually build a portal that will take you to an area known as The End, where you can fight the Ender Dragon that acts as last boss of the race.
In an unmodified game of Minecraft, Piglin releases Ender Pearls at random in about 4.7 percent of trades. In the six speed races Dream livestreamed from October 2020, however, as many as 16 percent of the Piglin drops were Ender Pearls (42 of 262).
Dreams luck did not end there. He also had to fight against several Blazes to get Blaze Rods to the portal. Defeating Blazes releases Blaze Rods 50 percent of the time in an unmodified game. In the live streams in question, Dream received a Blaze Rod from just over 69 percent of the defeated Blazes (211 of 305).
Of course, being lucky is not proof of cheating. Unlikely things happen sometimes, and speed runners often go through thousands of races hoping to get the one random seed that allows them to shave just a few seconds of their best time.
When you sit down and do the math, the chances of Dream being this consistently lucky, over the many consecutive livestreamed races, become so small that they are virtually zero. In a 29-page report released in December last year, the Minecraft Speedrunning team went into frightening detail to calculate the chances of Ender Pearl and Blaze Rod dropping rates (or better) occurring in a truly random set of speedrun attempts. The final odds: 1 out of 20 sextillions, or 2 x 10 ^ 22.
Stand-Up Maths The YouTube channel has an entertaining overview of mathematics that puts that level of luck in context. There, author and host Matt Parker calculates that a theoretical task performed by each of 10 billion people once every second for 100 years in a row would result in 3 x 10 ^ 19 randomized studies. Still, even with so many attempts, you would not expect to get a specific, pre-determined outcome that was as unlikely as what was shown in Dreams speedruns (which in turn would happen once in 2 x 10 ^ 22 studies, provided that they were legitimate).
“If something is likely to happen as done by a human, it must have the odds below [3 x 10^19], “Summarized Parks.
Math or not, Dream did not take these accusations lightly, and he went so far as to order a recurring report from an astrophysicist through the science consulting firm Photoexcitation. The report used a number of assumptions about simulation and “skew correction” algorithms to determine a more reasonable chance that each Minecraft speedrunner would meet Dream’s level of luck at some point in the last year.
In response, the Minecraft Speedrunning Team issued a return to the return, pointing out problems with the methods and assumptions of the first return. Regardless, even taking the first return at face value, the second return points out that “1 in 10 million posterior probabilities … still impl.[ies] a 99.99999% chance of Dream cheating. “
Meanwhile, Dream loudly and publicly rejected the whole process. “Luck is not a reason to accuse a runner (who has set several world records and made thousands of speed races) of cheating,” he tweeted in November last year. “The level of disrespect I have shown is just ridiculous,” he continued. “The mod team has shown an inability to go unnoticed [sic], and has been unresponsive and unprofessional. “
That kind of conversation led to many back and forth arguments and online harassment between Dream’s many fans (he has 4.7 million Twitch followers and 22.8 million YouTube subscribers) and those who support the conclusions of the Speedrun modes. “I’m sure this drama has been stressful for the most part Minecraft society, and much of it was probably because of my original response to the drama, so I take full responsibility for it, “Dream said in a tweet in January that he claimed would be his last regarding the issue.
This weekend, however, Dream offered a long explanation of what happened, writing that after “exploring the possibilities” involved in the race, he ended up finding out that I HAD actually used an unauthorized modification during ~ 6 of live my streams on Rykke. “
Dream chalks this up to use an “overall recording mod” that he used after Minecraft was updated to version 1.16 in June last year. He wrote that he thought this mode was “basically just a chat mode” with no game effects, and that he “was 99% sure” that it was not on during the run. In reality, however, that mod was largely similar to separate mods Dream had used previously (and openly) in videos prior to version 1.16 to “increase enderman spawning rates and pearl fall rates out of convenience. It makes videos better because we do not use hours of searching for pearls or spending so much time cultivating flame poles. “
“I felt very terrible for the mature because I pulled them through the mud, even though they were mostly right.”
When Dream realized this a few months ago, he wrote, he deleted a sharp video response he had posted regarding the Speedrun.com modes. However, he did not announce his finding publicly at the time, saying he “felt that society had been through enough drama and that it was meaningless. I did not want to be the center of controversy a hundred times.” He said he realized that “it would be a story I would tell in a few years when no one really cares.”
Looking back on it all now, Dream wrote that he was too quick to assume that “I was targeted because of the fact that I was a YouTuber” and that speedrun fashion “was looking to get me.” Dream wrote that he became “paranoid and did not think right”, which led to him being “scared and stressed and [say and do] drite thing. “
“When the drama first started, I cared more about defending myself and being right, then [sic] about finding out what was actually going on, and I shot myself in the foot by doing so, “he wrote. I felt very terrible for the mature because I pulled them through the mud, even though they were mostly right. “
Now that Dream has owned up to its flaws, at least some in Minecraft The speedrunning community is ready to move on. “Dream and I are cool again,” tweeted Geosquare, who was working on a video explaining the Speedrun fashion decision. “Glad we see some closures today.”