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22 predictions for social media in 2019

Similarly, 2018 has come to an end. I understand that there are a few days left a year, but the content industry is already well into its cycle of recaps and predictions, and readers can be forgiven if they would like to mark on more festive issues to close the year. Personally, I have a lot of shopping to do – but I would also like to spend the 2019 schedule. It will be a big year for the interface, and I'll have to spend some time away from Twitter to give it some shape. It could be a bonus problem or two. I have some stories published before the turn of the year that are relevant to our interests here ̵

1; but otherwise your daily downturn of today's top news in social networks and democracy will come back on January 7th.

And what kind of world do we want to come back to? I asked you to share your social media predictions in 2019 on Twitter and you had many great ideas. (Unfortunately I heard almost exclusively from men!) Let's look at some of your best suggestions, with some of my own sprinkled in:

SOCIAL NETWORKS : Monte Thigpen Predicts More Paid Social Networking ]. The conventional wisdom means that social networks only work if as many as possible are on them. But it is as likely that the conventional wisdom is wrong. For an idea of ​​how this might look, see the rise to paid Slack channels.

Nik Sharma is among those who believe 2019 will look back to the group cat as our social network . I said this myself on a recent episode of Recode Decode . And Taylor Lorenz said that in 2017, because that's how far in the future she lives. (Ryan Ruark adds that this phenomenon will be of particular benefit to Discord and Slack .)

Dave Smith says " Apple or Google will try some sort of social network again. " We Knowing former Facebook wunderkind Michael Sayman cooks some kind of social app on Google, so considering this prediction is approved. POLITICS : Will Oremus say "Heads of State with Autocratic Slopes will use the valid concerns of the year about Facebook as an excuse to block access, nationalize it or ban it from their country." It's already happening , so for sure!

Bret Carmichael expects us to see steps taken against national privacy regulation, barred by the party war . Sounds right! The reminder that the industry has until 2020 for California's privacy bill will come into force and people I've talked to expect to run to send a national bill comes down to the management.

FACEBOOK : Ken Goldsholl ] estimates a decline in North American use . Brandon Arvay anticipates paid Facebook group membership . I predict that the modest decline in users will make some of Facebook's content acquisition / foreign interference issues better in 2019, while introducing new concerns about their long-term business. And ] not predict that 2019 is the year that Facebook stories take care of.

INSTAGRAM : Matt Wood anticipates that Instagram's ongoing Facebookification project will continue, but also claims that the app will suffer from a serious data breach . I do not want to guess the details, but I think 2019 will see some kind of bill over Instagram. Its charismatic founders are gone, the press wakes up to some long-term problems there and there is an increasing feeling among a certain elite who is watching the app all the time is bad for you.

On the product page Tu- Lam Pham says shopping will have a breakout year at Instagram . I anticipate that we will see the free-standing shopping app in 2019, myself. And probably the direct message app they've tested too.

TWITTER : Will Pfeffer Know It Will Hurt Me, Traces " Twitter will do dozens of controversial user interface changes, and neither will involve " Kevin Middleton says Twitter will be drawn from the App Store over adult content – a prediction that seems surprisingly likely after the Tumblr failure this year.

I predict that Twitter will collapse, and everyone will constantly call it "this hell site" and use it anyway.

YOUTUBE : Former Facebooker Ben Cunningham predicts more serialized long-format content on YouTube . Can we see "Serial" but for video? What about "S-Town" or "Slow Burn" or "Caliphate"? Would love to see some people try. For an idea of ​​how this might look, check out Shane Dawson's documentary series at the infamous YouTube TanaCon Conference.

Nobody, for what it's worth, predicts that YouTube would get its right-wing extremism problem under control.

SNAP : Cunningham anticipates more magnified reality things at the expense of everything else that is heard on the right. Absence of a surprising hit product, it's going to be a tough year for Snap.

TIKTOK : Nobody really sent in a TikTok prediction unless you count AppAnnies PR agency, who offered this: "In 2019, 10 minutes of each hour spent consumer media over tv and the internet will come from individuals streaming video on mobile. App Annie predicts that this growth will be encouraged in part by the revival of social video files such as TikTok and the appearance of short-term video in social media such as Instagram and Snapchat. "

I can not tell if TikTok cites most under radar right now – the slow and slow-growing social network that Facebook traditionally has feared most – or if it's already petting out.

NEW APPS: Alex Alam DM's fun prediction about a new social app that connects different chat programs, Adium style:

Maybe this year or next, I expect to see a hilarious well-funded boot that claims to be "IFTTT for chat apps", which really just means they remade Adium / Old OSX Messages. If they are right, there will be a lot of ballyhoo to the major platforms arbitrarily turning off API access, cremation and dooming it. It will still work with IRC, Gchat and uhhhh, Yo.

Alam also predicts "six or more" failed Tumblr replacements, along with significant growth for Mastodon.

Jannick Malling email messages to say that next-generation social apps just want to add social features to existing vertical apps:

"It will start to be thought of more like one [operating system] for each app type, whether it's apply to real estate, mental well-being, financial investment or even scooters.

In each niche interest or activity, the apps that earn will continue to become more inherent social – because the underlying demand / desire to connect to others and build a feeling of societies around these are still intact.

Something else we can predict with certainty: The arrival of Byte, Dom Hoffman's "sequel" to the looping-video app Vine.

TROLLS : Scream out to the following ghosts:

  • "An American Congressman gives a concise, accurate and luminous explanation of how a social network, any social network, works. "- Ned Berke
  • " Linked in stories, in a desperate attempt to increase engagement, cross over to Microsoft 365 products and cause rebellion in the streets when people learn that they can not opt ​​out. "- Nick Haase
  • " Facebook Portal 2 advertised and it can follow you around your house. Zuckie promises that it's sleeping Roomba style at night, but you woke up in the middle of the night once and it was definitely out through your closet. "- Originalsmell

Thank you for reading the interface this year. Happy vacation to you and this is time together all together in 2019.

Facebook's photo leak

In an extreme 2018 development, Facebook revealed yet another data cutout on Friday, which affected as many as 6.8 million people, allowed up to 1500 apps from 876 different developers to view images they should not have access to. Here are Jake Kastrenakes:

Facebook said that The error was related to an error related to Facebook Login and its Photos API, which allows developers to access Facebook images in their own apps. All affected users had logged in to a third-party application using Facebook accounts, and gave them Somehow, to see their photos.

"Sorry, this happened," writes Tomer Bar, Facebook Technical Director. The information comes just a day after Facebook opened a popup installation in New York to show people how to " you can manage your privacy "on the site.

At TechCrunch Josh Constine reports that this could be expensive for Facebook:

Facebook did not first announce when it discovered the error, but in response to TechCrunch's inquiry, a spokesman said that it was discovered and fixed 25 September. They say it took time for the company to investigate which apps and people were affected, and build and translate the alert notice that will send affected users. The delay may put Facebook at risk of GDPR fines in order not to promptly reveal the issue within 72 hours, which can go up to 20 million pounds or 4 percent of annual global revenues.

However, Facebook tells me that it notified IDPC that monitors GDPR on November 22, as soon as it was created, the error was considered a reportable violation under the GDPR guidelines. It says that it had to be investigated to get that conclusion and let IDPC know within 72 hours when it had. Communication Officer for IDPC Graham Doyle Tells TechCrunch "The Irish DPC has received a number of violation reports from Facebook since the introduction of GDPR on May 25, 2018. With reference to these data breaks, including the breach of the question, we have this week commenced a statutory investigation investigating Facebook's compliance with the relevant provisions of the GDPR. "

Charlie Warzel says that the company no longer deserves our data:

The time is interesting – Facebook discovered the error around the time the public announced a (other) massive error that exposed 30 million user data in late September. In October, the extent of the violation of reports expanded that the vulnerability not only showed users' email and phone numbers, but also profile information, including gender, location, date of birth, and recent search history. The FBI is now investigating this violation.

There are two massive vulnerabilities in months – in the same year as the Cambridge Analytica scandal, which also involved millions of Facebook users. Overall, the shooting is overwhelming and affects tens of millions of people. They are not just email addresses or password leaks, but e-mail messages were probably leaked – this is a violation of very personal information – Location History, Search History, Images.

On the one hand, unless people uploaded extremely sensitive photos to Facebook, Fallout from this last break seems to be limited. Constine describes the current data "images uploaded by users, but decided not to enter, which were interrupted by connection issues, or otherwise they never finished sharing." When I think of my own pictures that fit the description, there are many stupid selfies, unclear low-light shots, and other camera-roll rot. I would rather third-party developers not have them, but I would not panic if they did.

Therefore, I expect the following discussion here to focus on timing: what Facebook knew when Facebook knew it and whether it met its obligations to regulators. I also expect this event to be a recurring section of Privacy Statement Stories in 2019, of which there will be many.

In the past, I meet friends who tell me that they limit their use of social media – either by erasing their accounts directly or just deleting mobile apps and only occasional visits to sites like Facebook on the desktop. (I did a version of this even last year when I turned off all Facebook notifications, which helped me cut my time in the app for a few minutes a day.)

When I ask people how they came to this the point, sometimes it's a simple breakpoint. But more often I find that there is a steady increase in irritations and scandals that push people over the edge. At one point, enough things go wrong, in a short enough time, people say "hell with it." The details of this last violation may not be as worrying as they may come from the headlines. But I suspect that for a small group of people this may be the last strain.


Jack Dorsey took a government-organized hot air balloon route in Myanmar

It would not be a proper end of 2018 posts unless we had an update on the infinite Veep episode that has been Jack Dorseys world travels. Thank you Ryan Mac for this timely update:

After returning to his visit to Myanmar, a country that has experienced severe sectarian violence and genocide worsened by social media, Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey took his social media service earlier this the week to say that his trip was "purely personal". It was intended to improve his meditation exercise, he wrote in a number of tweets, and there were no conversations with government or non-governmental organizations while he was there.

A now-deleted Facebook post shared with BuzzFeed News, however, says that Dorsey took a Burmese government-led hot air balloon ride during his more than 10 day stay in the country. A Twitter spokesman confirmed the balloon ride took place, but said Dorsey had no knowledge of the government's involvement in the plane.

Forget about Big Oil. Google is the new target for activists

Gerrit De Vynck and Josh Eidelson report that Googlers is facing external pressure on their company decisions:

"When I arrived at Google, I never expected that we would be the target of a fight against Amnesty International, "replied Harris on Twitter, and let her tweet with a sad face demo. "Google, I was right away (seemed to" pretend "? Actually?) Did so much more than increase your ad's income," she added in another tweet on November 30.

Harris , a leading product leader at the company, did not respond to requests for comment.

Googles Dragonfly Project

Ryan Gallagher puts in a useful organizational chart for Project Dragonfly.

In total, only about 300 Google employees – 0, 35% of the company's 88,000 total employees have worked with censored search engine, which was designed to blacklist broad categories of human rights, democracy and peaceful protest. The search platform will also link Chinese users' search listings to their mobile number and share people's search stories with a Chinese partner company , which means that Chinese security agencies, who routinely target activists and critics, could get the data.

After Yellow Ways Coming Off, Activists in Fr Ankrike Use Facebook to Protest and Plan

Elian Peltier and Adam Satariano find at least two yellow bags that believe Facebook plays an important role in the movement:

"Both burn each other," said Mr. Mirallès, 27, a real estate agent in Perpignan moderates a Facebook group for protesters who have gathered over 305,000 members. "Without Facebook there would be no such movement, but the online activity is driven by the energy of the streets." […]

"I'm not sure Facebook should have this role of reinforcement," said Ingrid Levavasseur, 32, a nurse in Normandy who has become a spokeswoman for the movement. To many groups she said, "It has come out of their hands."

Neo-Nazis organizes secretary paramilitary training across America

Ben Makuch and Mack Lamoureux explore "The Base", a social network that they say "Seems to be an attempt to switch Nazism from a shared digital space to physical violent rebellion. " Perhaps the FBI can explore this too? Please?

Within the framework of a secure chat room set by VICE, Spear and his emerging global web of terrorist networks are creating propaganda, organizing personal meetings and discussing potential violence or "direct action" against minority groups, especially Jewish and black Americans. An extensive web-based library contains a manual for manuals with instructions on lone ulv's terror tactics, weaponry, data mining, interrogation tactics, counter-monitoring techniques, bombing, chemical weapons creation and guerrilla warfare.

The network's vetting process serves to draw dedicated extremists from across the Internet to a group explicitly focused on giving users terrorist knowledge to produce violence in the world. Members of the base have made it clear that they recruit applicants with military and explosive backgrounds. And in addition to homemade bombs, members have also begun discussing trying to find unexploded WWII order to create improvised explosive devices.


Facebook Clearly Dismissed Its Building 8 Skunkworks Device As It Reforms Its Breakthrough Experiments And Hardware

Rob Price has a scoop like Building 8, which was perceived as a Willy Wonka Magic Laboratory for ex-DARPA and -Google legend Regina Dugan, among other things, let's hear with our skin has been shut down. Scripture was probably on the wall when Dugan finished last year after just 18 months, after sending nothing. On the other hand, Facebook's hardware manager says the story is misleading that " the research we originally started in Building 8, continues in our Facebook Reality Labs Research Group. "

Some of the most experimental projects have been shunted Over to a new division, Facebook Reality Labs, and the hardware segment has been rebranded as Portal after the launch of Facebook's home video chat device.

The building 8 brand, meanwhile, is quietly killed completely, a spokesman told Business Insider.

Facebook is looking for new revenue as display ads stagnate

Interesting note in Sarah Fischer's story on Facebook in search of new sources of income: Time spent on Facebook properties really looks like falling: [19659072] According to a note sent to Wieser clients, Facebook-related features (Facebook, Messenger, Instagram and WhatsApp) were below 14% of digital content consumption last year, whic h is down from its 18% share two years ago and 16% a year ago .

Facebook's New York Privacy Popup was Small, Curly, and Full of Sugar

Megan Farokhmanesh visited Facebook's popup private kiosk in Bryant Park and found a F-shaped Marshmallow and wondered what the point was: [[19659073] The popup opened at 11 o'clock on Thursday, mainly to a swarm of journalists. In the hours around lunch it was still filled with click cameras and interviewers who took up most of the room. When a handful of holiday traders walked in, they took the most of the snack table before recycling, carriage style. A Facebook employee acknowledged that the popup had mostly taken care of the media so far, but they were hopeful that more common users would tip in as offices closed and the markets lived up. A Facebook brand ambassador seriously offered a survey to people they left; The majority so far, he said, had refused to offer his thoughts on how the event had changed their view of privacy and Facebook.

Facebook employees stressed that the incident was to promote security and understanding with its customers. A practical experience or face to face with another person can help an average user better understand what their data is really worth. However, the small scale of the popup, combined with the printout of instructions already available online, felt like a bizarre first step – especially when the site was designed to attract holidaymakers who probably only searched for shelter from the cold. [19659077] We asked 19 facts about what they think of their partnership with Facebook. Here's what they told us.

Daniel "Uptown" Funke answers yesterday's Guardian story of dissatisfied Facebook debugger from a third party with a survey and finds that the overall feeling is positive. Remarkable State: The invoices have collectively marked at least 30,000 links as fake in the past two years.

Judged by their own goals, the factual checks look moderately satisfied with the partnership, considering an average of 3.5 out of 5 If this was an Yelp review, the restaurant would not be a must-eat but also not a place you would risk food poisoning.

They look equally satisfactory (3.5 out of 5) with the payment they receive from Facebook for their jobs – while exact amounts are not generally public and vary between partners based on the work, Factcheck.org has received receipt of a Palestinian $ 188,881 from Facebook in fiscal year 2018


Facebook's Blockchain Group is on hire Spree to Reinvent Money

Alex Heath and Tanaya Macheel check in on Facebook's blockchain division and find out that it's exploring a new digital currency. Perhaps one day we will use it to pay fines from the Facebook Supreme Court:

In recent months, the world's largest social network has sought to recruit product managers, engineers, academics and legal experts with experience in crypto curves and payments. , according to people familiar with the effort. Nearly 40 employees – including several previous PayPal execs – work in Facebook's secret blockchain group, and the company has recently appointed a business development manager to oversee acquisitions and deals in the room.

Since its blockchain group formed just eight months ago, Facebook has sent its employees to crypto conferences worldwide to recruit researchers, cryptographers and top academics in the field. On a private dinner, Facebook, hosted during a recent crypto conference, a Cheddar participant said Facebook staff set the idea of ​​creating a decentralized digital currency for the social network's 2 billion users.

YouTube users can see noticeable drop in subscriber numbers as the company tackles spam

Great. I had just hit 10 YouTube subscribers, and now it's done:

An official post on YouTube's product forum says these sweepstakes are part of routine maintenance the company performs. Removing spam accounts helps keep YouTube a "fair playfield" for creators, as they can artificially increase the channel's subscriber count. It is unclear how many channels will be affected, but YouTube wants people to prepare for a decline.

"We regularly check the legitimacy of accounts and actions on your YouTube channel," reads the blog post. "As part of these regular controls, we identified and want to remove a number of subscribers who were actually spam from our systems."


Instagram will begin to tell brands as products user's bookmark, which can be used for ad targeting

People love using Instagram, but sometimes they ask: Why are not all my actions on this platform explicitly used for advertising purposes? Well, here's another common data-generating activity that will soon be called into income tax, reports Sal Rodriguez:

Instagram last month introduced a tool that allows users to bookmark products found on the social network. Instagram now works with an insight tool that will show brands which of the products users save, "said Layla Amjadi, Instagram Product Manager. Instagram intends to release this feature by the first half of 2019.

Facebook Adds A Web Browser And Instant Games To Portal Video Chat Devices

Facebook Portal: Still In Active Development:

A New Update Today For Facebook's Portal Devices adds some needed features to the dedicated video chat screens. Now, both the smaller standard portal and the larger Portal + version will be able to access the web through a custom browser. It opens the devices for a proper version of YouTube, Facebook.com, and any number of other news and entertainment venues. (Portal has access to YouTube before, but only the rudimentary, smart TV version.) In addition to a browser, Facebook also launches support for its Instant Games platform on Portal, starting with titles like Battleship and Words with friends .


Rising, Lean and Fall by Sheryl Sandberg

Anne Helen Peterson tracks the transformation of Sandberg's image over the years and concludes that observers have never paid enough attention to COO's core function: Running a Business:

While The public perception of Sandberg has changed dramatically – even Michelle Obama recently drew Lean In – as far as we know, little about Sandberg or the business strategy has changed. We only see the previous incarnations of her image for what they were: well-painted distractions from the much darker reality of Silicon Valley. Multibillion dollar tech companies do not exist in the end to help us live more successful, fulfilled, connected lives. They are built to earn money and consolidate enough power to keep doing it – and the leaders who lead them are distinguished by doing so with reckless efficiency. Unicorns are not real and have never been; Most of us are not Sandberg's friends or her friends. We are customers, and Sandberg's most urgent business has always been business-oriented.

How YouTube's Year-in-Review & Rewind & # 39; Video set outside a civil war

Kevin Roose examines why YouTube's marketing video by the end of the year triggered an apocalypse of downvotes. (My idea for next year: YouTube releases both a "good" rewind, full of G-nominated creators and a "bad" rewind, exploring the growth of right extremism as it spreads through recommendation algorithms and radicalizes a generation of young men. )

Drama between YouTube and its creators is nothing new. But the Rewind controversy is a sign of a major issue on YouTube that tries to market itself as a bastion of fun and inclusive creativity while being accused of radicalizing a generation of young people by pushing them towards increasingly extreme content and allowing reactionary tissue and conspiracy theorists to dominate the platform.

The YouTube effort is complicated by the fact that it actually has many different and interesting creators that make compelling videos. But these voices have been worn, at times, to be heard by roar of the area's most firefighters. It is not mentioned in YouTube Rewind of Alex Jones, the founder of the Infowars conspiracy theory, which built a YouTube empire with millions of subscribers and generated more than 1.6 billion views. There was no mention of the group of political YouTubers that make up what Rebecca Lewis at the Data & Society Research Institute has called YouTube's "Alternative Influence Network", an influential cohort of video makers who have used their platforms to promote ideas from the right

Facebook Censors at Random

I'm personal fan of Facebook's efforts to demand more information from political advertisers, making life more difficult for foreign agents trying to influence our choice. It was hiccup, but the answer – including this from the director of Nuyorican Poets Cafe – really put Facebook on non-good-god-unpunished territory. Either way, we assume that we can discuss whether an ideal to buy an ad saying that people should vote should require some basic information in front – but I think it should! It's not really that big deal! Just submit the danged postcard, people:

Multiple paid advertising campaigns driven by my colleagues and clients have been the inexplicable barrier of Facebook's politicization in recent months. Facebook refused to allow my New York cultural ideal, Nuyorican Poets Cafe, to pay to encourage a encouraging people to vote in midterms because our site was not "authorized to run ads related to politics." A campaign that promotes a lecture on sculpture at the Boston Museum of Fine Arts was blocked because Facebook's censors mistakenly believed it was intended to affect a choice in Ireland.

And finally …

The best things on the internet in 2018

I included the worst things on the internet in 2018 here earlier this week, so it's just fair that I end up with the best. I'm not really on celebrity social media much, but here's a nice reminder that someone generally uses it for good:

Social media is basically a poison; Some amount is probably too much. And yet it is dappled among the many celebrities who refuse to log off, a small number that shines like a lighthouse in the dark. It is the transparent goodness of possible golden retriever Chris Evans, who simply calls Trump "Steak" ; The scary knowledge of Vince Staples; and Big Boi's amazing daily punishment. Ariana Grande, a person who is so good at being known for signing in one of the best singles of the year, refuses to end to own Piers Morgan. Every Sunday we get witness to The Rocks comically over sized "cheat meal"; Tom Hanks still signs all his tweets "Hanx" ; Patti Smith came to Instagram and is extremely unhappy Patti Smith. Chrissy Teigen will not log off and will not stop dunking on her husband. Jameela Jamil works uniquely well positioned to call out the celebrity customs. And finally, there was no Henry Cavill Mustache fan than Henry Cavill himself, who created a memorial video for it after shaving. Hoe lang een van deze goede bekende mensen kan blijven goed op het internet blijft te zien; for now, though, they have withstood its polarizing winds, reminding us, in the process, why we liked them in the first place.

Talk to me

Send me tips, comments, questions, and cute Christmas cards: casey@theverge.com.

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